Colloquium de l'IDPLarge deviation theory applied to climate physics, a new frontier of statistical physics and applied mathematics
Freddy Bouchet (ENS Lyon)
Thursday 12 May 2016 14:00 - Orléans - Salle de Séminaire
I will review some of the recent developments in the theoretical and mathematical aspects of the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of climate dynamics. At the intersection between statistical mechanics, turbulence, and geophysical fluid dynamics, this field is a wonderful new playground for applied mathematics involving large deviation theory, stochastic partial differential equations, and diffusion Monte-Carlo algorithms. We will first discuss new theoretical results for the computation from path integrals of the transition rates between attractors for irreversible dynamics (the non-equilibrium Eyring-Kramers law). We will then discuss two classes of applications. First extreme heat waves as an example of a rare event with a huge impact. Second rare trajectories that suddenly drive the complex dynamical system from one attractor to a completely different one, related to abrupt climate changes.